Deviant sexual arousal,offense history,and demographic variables as predictors of reoffense among child molesters

The present study examined selected demographic and offense history variables and deviant sexual arousal as predictors of reoffense in a group of 35 untreated child molesters. The measure of deviant sexual arousal was based on laboratory measures of sexual preference using penile plethysmography. Factor analysis of the predictor variables yielded three factors. The measure of deviant arousal, the amount of force used in the offense, whether or not the offender had intercourse with the child victim, and the number of previous victims loaded on the first factor, called Sexual Deviance. IQ and socioeconomic status loaded on the second factor, called Social Status. Age of the offender and age of the victim loaded on the third factor, called Offender Age. Entering the sets of three factor scores as predictors in a multiple correlation, over 20% of the variance in recidivism was explained, but the factor Sexual Deviance was the only significant predictor of recidivism (p < .02). Almost 30% of the variance in number of reoffenses was explained, and both Sexual Deviance (p < .01) and Social Status (p < .10) were significant predictors. A cluster analysis identified a group of offenders characterized by low SES and low IQ who also showed higher sexual deviance scores and a high rate of reoffense.