雾霾对地区GDP增长率的影响：抑郁情绪的中介效应

环境污染导致的天气变化对人的身心健康和社会发展都会产生重大影响。本研究以心理学的视角探讨雾霾天气是否会使人产生抑郁情绪，降低工作效率，进而影响社会经济发展。方法：收集2013-2015年中国大陆27个省会城市及4直辖市的PM2.5浓度、抑郁指数及地区生产总值增长率。采用百度统计平台基于关键词“抑郁”搜索量合成的抑郁指数作为抑郁情绪指标。结果表明：（1）2013-2015年各地区的PM2.5浓度与抑郁指数正相关显著(r= .33, p< .01)，抑郁指数与地区GDP增长率的负相关显著(r= -.37, p< .01)；（2）抑郁指数在PM2.5浓度和地区GDP增长率间起完全中介作用。（3）当lag=-6时，上海市2013年1月到2015年12月PM2.5浓度和抑郁指数的互相关系数最大(rR = .38, p< .05)。结论：雾霾天气可能会使人产生抑郁情绪，进而对经济增长产生负面影响。

The Influence of Smog on the Ratio of Regional GDP Growth: Mediating Effect of Depression

Air pollution, especially the primary pollutant smog, causes enormous impacts on the mental and physical health of people as well as social development. The influence of the smog on mental health has received increasing attention in the West. However, very few empirical studies have addressed this issue in China. The present research aims to creatively explore the impact of the PM2.5 density and depression on the growth rate of regional GDP. Furthermore, through examining the mediating role of depression between the PM2.5 density and the growth rate of regional GDP, this study examines a possible mental mechanism underlying the effect of the PM2.5 density on the economy development.The researchers collected the PM2.5 densities, depression indices and the growth rates of regional GDP of 31 regions in China (including provincial capitals and directly-controlled municipalities) from 2013 to 2015. The indicator of depression used in this research was the depression index, which was based on the searching amount of the key word “depression” collected by Baidu Statistics Platform. The results showed that: (1) Between January 2013 and December 2015, there was a significant positive correlation between the PM2.5 density and the depression index of all regions (r= .33, p< .01), and the negative correlation between the depression index and the regional GDP growth rate was also quite obvious(r=-.37, p< .01); (2) Depression index played an absolute mediating role between the density of PM2.5 and the regional GDP growth rate; (3) During the period of January 2013 to December 2015 in Shanghai, the cross correlation between PM2.5 concentration and depression index was significant and reached its maximum value when lag=-6 (rR = .38, p< .05).Conclusion: The relationship between the smog and regional GDP growth rate might be influenced by the government’s macro-regulation and the whole economic environment. However, the negative effect of smog on emotions remains stable. The absolute meditating effect of depression on the PM2.5 density and regional GDP growth rate shows that smog might make people depressed, thus influence the regional economy growth. To some extent, this mediating model reveals the mental mechanism of how environment influences the social and economic development.