不确定性容忍度、损益概率及延迟风险对延迟选择的影响

研究通过两个实验考查了不确定性容忍度及相关变量对延迟选择的影响,其中实验1采用2（不确定性容忍度：高/低）×2（概率水平：高/中）被试间实验设计;研究2将实验任务设定在有延迟风险情景下中等概率水平,采用单因素（不确定性容忍度：高/低）被试间实验设计.实验1结果表明：不确定性容忍度与概率水平存在交互作用：中等概率时,低容忍度个体比高容忍度个体更偏好延迟选择,高概率时,两者的延迟选择无显著差异,都偏好于选择决策.实验2结果表明：在有延迟风险中等概率时,高、低容忍度个体的决策偏好无显著差异,都偏好选择决策.结论：不确定性容忍度对延迟选择存在影响且受概率水平和延迟风险的调节.

The Effects of Tolerance of Uncertainty,Probability and Defer Risk on Choice Deferral

This study investigated the influences of TU, defer risk and probability levels on choice deferral, including two experiments. Experiment 1 employed 2 （ tolerance of uncertainty ： high vs. low） × 2 （ probabilities ： high vs. median） between - subject design to examine the effect of TU and probabilities on choice deferral in a risk - free condition, meaning that there are no risks associated with the delay of decision making. The results indicated that ： There was significant interaction between TU and the levels of probability on decision preference. The further analysis showed that subjects who had high scores on IUS were more willing to select the deferral option than subjects who had low scores on IUS on median probability level, but not on high probability level. Experiment 2 employed single factor （tolerance of uncertainty：high vs. low）between subject design to examine the effect of TU on choice deferral in a risk condition, each day of delay was associated with a risk of losing existing alternatives. The results indicated that ： when the probability was median, there was no difference between the high and low TU groups in choosing the deferred choice in a risk condition, both of them preferred to select decision. The results of two experiments suggested that TU influenced choice deferral and the influence was moderated by the defer risk and the level of probability.