Psychosocial predictors of adult antisocial personality and adult convictions

In the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development, 411 South London males have been followed up since age 8. This article investigates the ability of psychosocial risk factors measured at age 8 - 10 to predict antisocial personality measures at ages 18 and 32 and convictions between ages 21 and 40. The most important childhood predictors were a convicted parent, large family size, low intelligence or attainment, and child-rearing factors, including a young mother and a disrupted family. The accuracy of prediction of antisocial personality at age 32 on the basis of childhood risk factors measured more than 20 years before was surprising: nearly half of boys with a convicted parent at age 10 were antisocial at age 32, compared with one in six of the remainder. Over 60% of boys very high risk at age 8 - 10 became antisocial at age 32. While the present research shows how far adult antisocial and criminal behavior can be predicted in childhood, more research is needed to establish the precise causal mechanisms involved.