Procedural debiasing |
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| Affiliation: | 1. School of Medicine, 513 Parnassus Avenue, San Francisco, CA 94143, USA;2. Research and Development in Medical Education, 513 Parnassus Avenue, San Francisco, CA 94143, USA;3. Department of Surgery, University of California, San Francisco, 513 Parnassus Avenue, San Francisco, CA 94143, USA;1. Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, 600 S. Clyde Morris Blvd, Daytona Beach, FL 32114, United States;2. Department of Anesthesia and Perioperative Medicine Medical University of South Carolina, Charleston, SC 29425, United States;1. Graduate School of Engineering, Osaka University, 2-1 Yamadaoka, Suita, Osaka 565-0871, Japan;2. Nagoya City Institute for Environmental Sciences, 5-16-8 Toyota, Minami-ku, Nagoya, Aichi 457-0841, Japan;3. Hyogo Prefectural Institute of Environmental Sciences, Hyogo Environmental Advancement Association, 3-1-18 Yukihira-cho, Suma-ku, Kobe, Hyogo 654-0037, Japan;4. Landscape and Environment Bureau, Nara Prefectural Government, 30 Noborioji-cho, Nara, Nara 630-8501, Japan;5. Nara Prefecture Landscape and Environment Center, 1000 Odono, Sakurai, Nara 633-0062, Japan;6. National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba-City, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan |
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| Abstract: | This paper presents two experiments that illustrate how Bayesian inferences can be debiased by analyzing and correcting the cognitive procedures that lead to the biases. In the first experiment, a training procedure is used that corrects a common error in the adjustment process used by subjects when integrating evidence. In the second experiment, a focusing technique is used to improve the relative weighting of samples in the overall judgment. These results are discussed in terms of a model of the judgment process comprising four basic stages: (a) initial scanning of stimulus information; (b) selection of items for processing in order of importance; (c) extraction of scale values on the judgment dimension; and (d) adjustment of a composite value that summarizes already-processed components. |
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