概率的不同表征对贝叶斯推理的影响的研究

该研究以贝叶斯推算、判断为实验任务,探讨了三种概率表征(百分比、自然频率、概率词)、三种概率规则认识水平对贝叶斯推理的影响,结果表明:1)概率词表征的贝叶斯推算实质是判断过程。2)在三种概率表征中,频率表征更适合于正确完成贝叶斯推理,但存在学科背景的差异。3)贝叶斯推理使用的策略有正确规则、错误规则、命题知识、概率简捷式、直觉和个人意愿六种。4)贝叶斯判断的正确率高于贝叶斯推算,个体在贝叶斯判断上使用的正确规则多于贝叶斯推算过程。

Effects of Different Probability Representation on Bayesian Reasoning

The reasoning tasks were Bayesian calculation and judgment to explore the effects of different probability representation,understanding probability rule on the Bayesian inference.The results showed: 1) Process of verbal probability format on Bayesian reasoning was judgment.2) Frequency format was better than other formats,but there was difference among participants of different subject.3) Strategies of Bayesian reasoning included right rule,error rule,proposition,probability heuristics,intuition,desire.4) Judgment was better than calculation,right rules of judgment were more than of calculation.