表象—认知吝啬原则：MHD问题另释

本文首先对MHD问题的研究现状进行了简要回顾，然后对MHD问题中出现的“概率错判”和“选择固着”两种现象给出了一种基于表象—认知吝啬视角的解释。该视角认为，人们无论采用的是顺向表征还是逆向表征，都采用了动态表象表征问题，而依照认知吝啬原则，动态表象要模拟轿车在门1、门2之间以1：2的比率出现的状态很难，却极容易模拟成轿车在门1门2间随机出现的状态；这导致了人们形成“概率错判”；对于“选择固着”问题该视角则认为，它的出现是不变比改变更符合认知吝啬原则的结果。

The Mental Image Representation Underlying the Law of Parsimony:Interpreting the MHD in Another Way

A new interpretation of the MHD is given in this paper. According to it, most of the people are supposed to represent the MHD by mental image and obey the law of parsimony in their representation; Based on the two of these, people can only represent the MHD by dynamic mental image in the first stage of the problem, i.e., people can only imagine that the car appears randomly among the three doors; And at the second stage of the problem, people can also only imagine that the car appears randomly between the two doors which were left for the same reasons; though, they should have imagined that the car appears between the two doors underlying the ratio of 1:2. That is why the reasoning illusion exists.