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HOW TO PREDICT FUTURE DURATION FROM PRESENT AGE |
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| Authors: | Bradley Monton and Brian Kierland |
| Institution: | University of Kentucky &University of Missouri at Columbia |
| Abstract: | The physicist J. Richard Gott has given an argument which, if good, allows one to make accurate predictions for the future longevity of a process, based solely on its present age. We show that there are problems with some of the details of Gott's argument, but we defend the core thesis: in many circumstances, the greater the present age of a process, the more likely a longer future duration. |
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