Base-rate neglect as a function of base rates in probabilistic contingency learning |
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Authors: | Kutzner Florian Freytag Peter Vogel Tobias Fiedler Klaus |
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Affiliation: | Department of Psychology, University of Heidelberg, Hauptstrasse 47-51, 69117 Heidelberg, Germany. florian.kutzner@psychologie.uni-heidelberg.de |
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Abstract: | When humans predict criterion events based on probabilistic predictors, they often lend excessive weight to the predictor and insufficient weight to the base rate of the criterion event. In an operant analysis, using a matching-to-sample paradigm, Goodie and Fantino (1996) showed that humans exhibit base-rate neglect when predictors are associated with criterion events through physical similarity. In partial replications of their studies, we demonstrated similar effects when the predictors resembled the criterion events in terms of similarly skewed base rates. Participants' predictions were biased toward the more (or less) frequent criterion event following the more (or less) frequent predictor. This finding adds to the growing evidence for pseudocontingencies (Fiedler & Freytag, 2004), a framework that stresses base-rate influences on contingency learning. |
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Keywords: | pseudocontingency skewed base rates base-rate fallacy probabilistic contingency learning matching-to-sample humans computer keyboard |
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