Additivity neglect in probability estimates: Effects of numeracy and response format |
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Authors: | Anine H Riege Karl Halvor Teigen |
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Institution: | Department of Psychology, University of Oslo, 0317 Oslo, Norway |
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Abstract: | When people are asked to estimate the probabilities for an exhaustive set of more than two events, they often produce probabilities that add up to more than 100%. Potential determinants for such additivity neglect are explored in four experiments. Additive responses vary between experimental conditions, mainly as a result of response format, with a scale format leading to fewer additive responses than a list format with self-generated, written probabilities. Participants with high numeracy scores produced more additive responses, especially after being primed with a numeracy scale. Additivity neglect for 100% sums appears to be unrelated to other subadditive judgments, like non-additive disjunctions. We conclude that additivity neglect is caused by a case-based approach, which comes natural in real-life situations where the full set of outcomes is not available. |
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Keywords: | Probability estimates Additivity Numeracy Response format Predictions Subadditivity |
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