Estimating group size: effects of category membership,differential construal and selective exposure

The present study investigates the role of category membership, differential construal and selective exposure in consensus estimation concerning a relatively involving social categorization, namely religion. Christians, differing in their degree of religious involvement, and non-believers were asked to estimate the percentage of Christians in the general population. Respondents were expected to construe the general category of Christians differentially as a function of their own (religious) behaviours. These differential construals were expected to mediate respondents' estimates. Further, selective exposure, i.e. the religious behaviours of friends and relatives, was expected to affect the estimates. Results show a negative relationship between religious involvement and the estimated percentage of Christians, indicating a False Uniqueness Effect. As predicted, estimates were mediated by respondents' construal of the general category; involved Christians construed this category in more narrow terms than did the other two groups and that construal was related to lower consensus estimates. Further, selective exposure was positively related to consensus estimates. Thus, construal processes and selective exposure had opposing effects on respondents' consensus estimates.