Modelling determinants of walking and cycling adoption: A stage-of-change perspective |
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| Affiliation: | 1. School of Architecture, Huaqiao University, 668 Jimei Avenue, Xiamen 361021, People’s Republic of China;2. School of Transportation Engineering, Tongji University, 4800 Cao’an Road, Shanghai 201804, People’s Republic of China;3. Traffic Police Brigade, 29 Chongde Road, Jinjiang, Fujian 362200, People’s Republic of China;1. Division of Epidemiology, Human Genetics and Environmental Sciences, University of Texas School of Public Health, Austin Regional Campus, The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, 1616 Guadalupe St., Suite 6.300, Austin, TX 78701, USA;2. Division of Biostatistics, University of Texas School of Public Health, Austin Regional Campus, The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, 1616 Guadalupe St., Suite 6.300, Austin, TX 78701, USA;3. Division of Health Promotion and Behavioral Sciences, University of Texas School of Public Health, Austin Regional Campus, The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, 1616 Guadalupe St., Suite 6.300, Austin, TX 78701, USA;4. Department of Health Policy and Management, Robert Stempel College of Public Health & Social Work, Florida International University, USA;5. Department of Kinesiology and Health Education, University of Texas, Austin, USA;1. Cardiff University, Cardiff, UK;2. Transport Research Laboratory (TRL), Wokingham, UK;1. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Alberta, 6-362 Donadeo Innovation Centre for Engineering, Edmonton, AB T6G 1H9, Canada;2. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Alberta, 6-269 Donadeo Innovation Centre for Engineering, Edmonton, AB T6G 1H9, Canada;3. Department of Resource Economics and Environmental Sociology, University of Alberta, 515 General Services Building, Edmonton, AB T6G 2H1, Canada |
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| Abstract: | Shifting travel away from cars and towards more active modes has proven a formidable policy challenge. This study aims to uncover the determinants of walking and cycling adoption by applying a stage-of-change framework. Drawing on the Transtheoretical Model, this framework models the adoption of active modes as a series of stages from pre-contemplation to maintenance. Ordinal logit models applied to US data (n = 914) illustrate the importance of both observable demographic-personal and perceptual-attitudinal variables for determining stage-of-change membership. Comparing walking and cycling, the model reveals both shared variables (vehicle ownership, self-identity) and differing factors (gender, environmental spatial ability) distinguishing among adoption stages, which has significant implications for transport policy. Results indicate that a model combining both demographic-personal and perceptual-attitudinal factors has the best fit and validity, suggesting that travel behavior interventions would benefit from multivariate segmentation methods that consider an array of individual and group characteristics. This research also gives evidence of different determinants motivating change processes for cycling versus walking. Taken together, results suggest a need for tailored policy interventions to promote behavioural adoption based not merely on the specific mode selection, but also on the usage stage under consideration. |
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| Keywords: | Transtheoretical model Active transportation adoption Stages of change Factor analysis Ordinal logistic regression |
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