Hindsight bias and outcome-consistent thoughts when observing and making service provider decisions |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Center for Economic and Social Research and Department of Economics, University of Southern California, United States;2. Department of Information Systems and Business Analytics, Florida International University, United States;3. Department of Computer Science, University of British Columbia, Canada;4. School of Industrial Engineering, Purdue University, United States;1. Department of Psychology and Behavioral Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310028, China;2. Department of Psychology, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China;1. Utrecht University, The Netherlands;2. Radboud University Nijmegen, The Netherlands |
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| Abstract: | Two studies examined the relationship between hindsight bias and corresponding open-ended thoughts for decisions in a service provider setting. Perspectives of those observing and making decisions were examined. In study 1, business students who learned the results of a financial advisor’s stock purchase showed the traditional hindsight effect regardless of outcome favorability, and produced heightened outcome-consistent thoughts. In contrast, study 2 participants were asked to make (rather than to observe) a purchase decision. They produced hindsight bias and consistent thoughts only when their decision outcomes were favorable. Relative to observers, those acting as the service provider (a) showed more bias when outcomes were favorable, and (b) showed less bias when outcomes were unfavorable. Discussion focuses on hindsight implications in service provider decision-making settings. |
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