| 有关条件推理认知机制的概率理论 |
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| 引用本文： | 邱江,张庆林.有关条件推理认知机制的概率理论[J].心理科学,2004,27(1):165-167. |
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| 作者姓名： | 邱江 张庆林 |
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| 作者单位： | 西南师范大学心理学院,重庆,400715 |
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| 摘 要： | 条件推理主要有两种研究范式：演绎形式(MP、DA、AC、MT)和变通形式(四卡问题)。已往研究主要探讨了内容因素、情境因素以及元认知因素等对条件推理的影响，形成了若干理论模型和观点。近来、Oaksford等人研究了概率因素对条件推理的影响．提出了条件概率模型。本文对这种新的研究取向作了详细的介绍和评价，并对未来研究进行了展望。
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| 关 键 词： | 条件推理 认知机制 概率理论 演绎形式 变通形式 条件概率模型 内容因素 情境因素 元认知 |
Probability Theory of Conditional Inference |
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| Qiu Jiang,Zhang Qinglin.Probability Theory of Conditional Inference[J].Psychological Science,2004,27(1):165-167. |
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| Authors: | Qiu Jiang Zhang Qinglin |
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| Abstract: | Two major paradigms about studying conditional inference are the syllogistic format and the selection task. Many studies discussed the influence of content, context and metacognition on it. As a result, there were many theories about it. Lately, Oaksford put forward a conditional probability model of conditional inference , which studied the probabilities and polarity in conditional inference. This article recommends the model and looks to the future of studies in this field. |
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| Keywords: | selection task conditional inference conditional probability |
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