Nonlinear models of clinical judgement: communal nonlinearity and nonlinear accuracy

Despite our intuition that representative expert judgments are highly nonlinear, previous studies have shown only little, if any, nonlinearity in such judgments. The current study presents a method for assessing nonlinearity in judgment that is based on estimating communal nonlinearity—the systematic nonlinearity shared by the community of judges. The article also examines the predictive accuracy of communal nonlinearity, and compares it with the corresponding linear accuracy.