Reconsidering the two-second decay hypothesis in verbal working memory

A common belief in the study of short-term memory is that the verbal trace decays around two seconds after it is encoded. This belief is typically assumed to follow from the finding that in immediate serial recall, the time required to rapidly articulate a span-length list is around two seconds. Empirically, this belief is in opposition to a broad set of findings across a number of domains that establish mean decay times to be longer than two seconds. Theoretically, the available computational and mathematical models of immediate serial recall do not address this issue directly, because they typically rely on other mechanisms in addition to decay to account for forgetting. As such, they may show that decay times can be longer than two seconds, but they fail to show that they cannot be as short as two seconds. We address the issue directly and set a lower bound on mean trace decay times, even under the limiting assumption that all forgetting is due to trace decay. We do this by presenting a simple item-based model of trace decay that allows us to estimate values of mean trace duration. For a set of words whose span-length lists can be rapidly articulated in about two seconds, the model offers a conservative estimate for their mean decay times of around four seconds. Both the experimental and theoretical evidence show that items in verbal working memory decay considerably slower than the two-second decay hypothesis claims.