The moderating influence of variability on belief revision

The variability of the information on which a belief was initially based should moderate the degree to which the belief is revised when new disconfirming information is received. Reasoning from everyday intuitions, psychological theories of concept representation, and a rational mathematical analysis, we inferred that as variability increased, resistance to disconfirming information would also increase. Participants’ judgments of the central tendencies of distributions of numerical information confirmed this prediction.