The ability to look into the future (Probabilistic Prognosis)

“The Ability to Look into the Future (Probabilistic Prognosis)” is a translation of chapter five of I. M. Feigenberg’sBrain, Mind and Health Mozg, Psikhika, Zdorov’e], published by Nauka, Moscow, in 1972. The book deals with the psychophysiology of perception, affect, and memory, as well as certain psychopathological phenomena. The main theme of the book and the author’s research is probabilistic prognosis—the prediction of future events on the basis of the probabilistic structure of the past as stored in memory. In the present essay, Feigenberg develops the concept of probabilistic prognosis in an evolutionary context, linking it with the Pavlovian conditional reflex and orienting reactions, and illustrating how the theory can be applied to both animal and human behavior.