When confidence in a choice is independent of which choice is made |
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Authors: | Asher Koriat |
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Institution: | (1) Department of Psychology, University of Washington, Box 351525, 98195 Seattle, WA;(2) University of California, Irvine, California |
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Abstract: | For forced-choice two-alternative general-information questions, confidence in the correctness of the answer differed reliably
for different questions, regardless of which answer was chosen. Results suggested that this choice-independent confidence
is mediated by the domain familiarity of the question and by its tendency to bring to mind either few or many thoughts and
considerations. Ratings of the questions on familiarity and accessibility yielded strong correlations with participants’ confidence
in whichever of two answers they had chosen, and with estimates of the percentage of participants who were likely to have
chosen either of the answers in a previous experiment. The results were interpreted in terms of confirmation bias: Because
items differ in the extent to which they bring to mind few or many pertinent thoughts, selective focusing on supportive evidence
should yield a positive correlation between mean confidence in one answer and mean confidence in the alternative answer, as
if there is no competition between them. |
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Keywords: | |
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