| Abstract: | We investigated the task of predicting the outcomes of sporting events, in particular, basketball games. In two experiments, college students predicted the outcomes of a series of National Basketball Association (NBA) games. Following each prediction, the subject received feedback in the form of the actual outcome of the NBA game. After a period of initial learning about the relative strengths of the teams, the subjects were surprisingly successful in their predictions. We examined expert–novice differences by comparing the published predictions of professional oddsmakers to the predictions of the experimental subjects. The average predictions by the subjects were approximately as accurate as the predictions of experts. Finally, we applied a mathematical model, developed originally as an account of simpler learning experiments, to the subjects' responses. We found that the course of the subjects' learning about the teams was well-described by this model. |
