Credence and self-location |
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Authors: | Peter J Lewis |
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Institution: | (1) Rutgers University, Davison Hall, 26 Nichol Ave., New Brunswick, NJ, 08901, United States |
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Abstract: | All parties to the Sleeping Beauty debate agree that it shows that some cherished principle of rationality has to go. Thirders
think that it is Conditionalization and Reflection that must be given up or modified; halfers think that it is the Principal
Principle. I offer an analysis of the Sleeping Beauty puzzle that allows us to retain all three principles. In brief, I argue
that Sleeping Beauty’s credence in the uncentered proposition that the coin came up heads should be 1/2, but her credence
in the centered proposition that the coin came up heads and it is Monday should be 1/3. I trace the source of the earlier
mistakes to an unquestioned assumption in the debate, namely that an uncentered proposition is just a special kind of centered
proposition. I argue that the falsity of this assumption is the real lesson of the Sleeping Beauty case. |
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