Mental Simulations, Affect, and Subjective Confidence: Timing Is Everything

Three studies demonstrated that mental simulations and affect are related to temporal changes in subjective confidence. In Study 1, students' confidence in their midterm exam performance lessened from the first day of class (3.5 weeks before the exam) to exam day, and confidence correlated negatively with upward simulations (i.e., simulations that are better than reality) and negative affect. In Study 2, manipulated upward simulations produced low confidence and negative mood even when the exam was viewed from a distance; students who were forced to think about upward simulations 1 month prior to the exam felt no more confident than did students on exam day. In Study 3, manipulated negative moods produced low confidence and more upward simulations when students anticipated laboratory tasks, and again distal and proximal confidence did not differ. Discussion centers around reciprocal relations between mental simulations and affect, and a possibly integrative account of previous explanations.