| Abstract: | Abstract It is hypothesized that perceived team performance in competition can be analyzed in terms of event expectancy (expected, unexpected event), direction of lead (one's own team, opposing team) and momentum (positive, negative). These three variables determine “game standings”. The purpose of this study was to investigate the perceived relative contribution of these variables to extreme psychological arousal states (crisis, noncrisis). Forty-five elite team handball experts responded to a questionnaire in which they were asked to estimate the occurrence probability of all possible “game standings” under crisis and noncrisis conditions, according to the Bayesian approach. An ANOVA procedure revealed that under the crisis condition, negative momentum, unexpected event, and lead by opposing team were rated as more probable, whereas positive momentum, expected event, and lead of one's own team were judged to more likely occur under the noncrisis condition. Moreover, the athlete's psychological stale (Crisis, noncrisis) was judged to be more strongly related to momentum than to event expectancy and direction of lead. The results are discussed in reference to concepts such as self-efficacy and psychological performance crisis in competition. |
