INDUSTRIALIZATION AS A SELF-FULFILLING PROPHECY: THE ROLE OF EXPECTATIONS IN DEVELOPMENT

A self-fulfilling prophecy (SFP) occurs when the expectation of an event induces the behavior that increases the likelihood of the event's occurrence. Work organizations can be more or less effective as a result of SFP effects, whether naturally-occurring or deliberately induced by managers or consultants. Evidence for SFP at the individual level and at the collective level in work organizations is reviewed, including the Pygmalion, Galatea, Golem, and Messiah effects. Next, the SFP concept is extended beyond the single organization to the industrialization process at the national level. This leads to the novel hypothesis that, to the extent that persons in a developing nation expect industrialization to progress rapidly and successfully, the development process is facilitated. Several examples of SFP on Israel's path to industrialization are described, and emulation of these examples by other newly industrialized countries is proposed.