The illusion of courage in social predictions: Underestimating the impact of fear of embarrassment on other people |
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| Authors: | Leaf Van Boven George Loewenstein David Dunning |
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| Affiliation: | a Department of Psychology, University of Colorado, 345 UCB, Boulder, CO 80309-0345, USA;b Department of Social and Decision Sciences, Carnegie Mellon University, USA;c Department of Psychology, Cornell University, USA |
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| Abstract: | The results of two experiments support the thesis that emotional perspective taking entails two judgments: a prediction of one’s own preferences and decisions in a different emotional situation, and an adjustment of this prediction to accommodate perceived differences between self and others. Participants overestimated others’ willingness to engage in embarrassing public performances—miming (Experiment 1) and dancing (Experiment 2)—in exchange for money. Consistent with a dual judgment model, this overestimation was greater among participants facing a hypothetical rather than a real decision to perform. Further, participants’ predictions of others’ willingness to perform were more closely correlated with self-predictions than with participants’ estimates of others’ thoughts about the costs and benefits of performing. |
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| Keywords: | Affective forecasting Decision making Empathy gaps Emotion Judgment Prediction Perspective taking |
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