Optimistic bias and pessimistic realism in judgments of contingency with aversive or rewarding outcomes

A depressive personality influences judgments of contingency. This is called "depressive realism." The present experiment examined whether optimistic traits, as measured by various scales, are correlated with judgments of contingency. The valences of the target stimuli were aversive or rewarding (noise avoidance or gaining points). Analysis indicated that the optimistic subjects (as measured by explanatory style for negative events) tend to overestimate noncontingent events; however, optimism measured by other scales did not show such an effect. The findings are discussed in terms of a self-defensive attributional bias.