经验信息与共变信息对判断两原因共同作用的影响

本研究考察了被试在使用经验信息和共变信息进行两原因共同作用因果判断时所具有的特点。研究结果表明:(1)两原因的性质对于被试的选择有着显著影响。当两原因的可信度相等时,更多被试认为两原因都可以引起结果。(2)两原因都不出现时结果出现的概率P(e/~i~j)对于被试的选择没有显著影响。(3)两原因单独出现时结果出现的概率对于被试的选择有着显著的影响,但是这一变量是与两原因的可信程度共同产生影响的。

Function of Beliefs and Covariation in Judging Interactions between Two Causal Candidates

The ability of causal judgement is very important in people's development,which plays a critical role in helping people to understand the world.The covariation between the potential cause and the result and the causal power of the potential cause are two most important factors in causal judgement.In the past several decades,many psychologists have investigated the function of these two factors in causal judgement and have obtained many valuable results.Most of these studies,however,focused on only one potential cause.In real life,we are often faced with more than one potential cause.How do we handle it? The probabilistic contrast model of causal induction and the PAD model offered their own explanations.However,these two models focused only on the covariation between the potential causes and the result.In our opinion,the causal power of the potential causes is also important in causal judgement involving more than one potential cause.The consistency of the believability of the two candidates may be another important factor that influences people's judgement.In this study,we focused not only on the covariations between the potential causes and the result but also the causal power of the two potential causes,and investigated how people combine covariation information and pre-existing beliefs in judging interactions between two causal candidates.The results were as follows:(1)Subjects' pre-existing beliefs about the two causal candidates influenced their judgement.(2)The probability that the effect occurs when both the two causal candidates are absent has no significant influence on subjects' choice.(3)The probability that the effect occurs when either of the causal candidates is present alone influenced subjects' choice.But this effect interacted with subjects' pre-existing beliefs.