A simulation-based assessment of the value of enhancing the credibility of policy analysis

Credibility has been proposed recently as a standard for assessing the value of policy analysis. While various strategies for enhancing the credibility of policy analysis are available, little evidence exists concerning to what extent and under what circumstances implementing such strategies does, in fact, increase the value of policy analysis in terms of improving organizational decisionmaking. In this paper computer simulation—a methodological approach that has not been widely used to date in the field of knowledge application—is used to begin, to fill this gap. Specifically, the “garbage-can” model of decisionmaking developed by Cohen, March and Olsen (1972) has been modified to reflect a possible contribution of policy analysis to decisionmaking. Using this model, the extent to which enhancing credibility results in improved organizational decisionmaking under various circumstances is examined. Marvin B. Mandell is an assistant professor of policy sciences at the University of Maryland Baltimore County. His present research is focused on quantitative techniques for policy analysis and evaluation and the use of analytical information in decisionmaking.