有关条件推理中概率效应的实验研究

通过预备实验选取了四种不同条件概率的条件规则和四种不同前后件概率组合的条件规则作为实验材料，以大学生为被试，考察了两种概率因素(条件概率和前后件概率)对条件推理的演绎形式(MP、DA、AC、MT)以及变通形式(四卡问题)的影响。结果表明，两种概率因素对四种条件推理的影响都非常显著，研究进一步证实了人们对四种推理的认可程度主要与范畴前提的概率成正比的结论；但概率因素对四卡问题的解决影响不明显。

An Experimental Study on the Effect of Probability Factor in Conditional Inference

This article selected four different rules that had different conditional probability and four different rules that had different probability of antecedent and consequent, and studied undergraduates' cognitive process in resolving these inference problems. The aim of the experiment was to investigate the influence of probability factors on resolving syllogistic inference (MP?DA?AC?MT)and the selection task. The results indicated that there was a distinct influence of probability factors on conditional inference, and proved that people endorsed a conditional argument in direct proportion to the conditional probability of the conclusion given the categorical premise; in addition, there was no distinct probability factor effect on resolving the selection task.