Belief and the problem of Ulysses and the sirens

While self-contained, this paper is a sequel to my Belief and the Will (1984); see theBibliographical Note at the end of this paper for a survey of the relevant literature since then and supplementary references. I have meanwhile benefitted greatly from Brad Armendt's commentary and Richard Foley's How should future opinion affect current opinion?, both presented at a symposium at the APA Central Division, April 1993.