Hypothesis generation,probability judgment,and individual differences in working memory capacity |
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Authors: | Dougherty Michael R P Hunter Jennifer E |
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Affiliation: | Department of Psychology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA. mdougherty@psyc.umd.edu |
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Abstract: | This research examined the role of working memory (WM) in probability judgment and hypothesis generation using a simulated task that involved estimating the likelihood that particular menu items would be ordered by customers at a dinner. Five main findings were observed. First, judgments of the likelihood of individual items were made relative to alternatives retrieved from long-term memory. Second, the number of alternatives retrieved was positively correlated with a measure of WM-capacity (the operation-span task). Third, participants' probability judgments were subadditive (summing to well over 100%). Fourth, the degree to which participants' judgments were subadditive was affected by the number and strength of the alternatives retrieved from long-term memory. Fifth, the degree to which participants were subadditive was negatively correlated with WM-capacity. The results suggest that individual differences in WM-capacity are fundamental to hypothesis generation and probability judgment. |
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Keywords: | 2343 3040 |
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