Biased belief in the Bayesian brain: A deeper look at the evidence |
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Affiliation: | 1. Department of Psychology, University of Warwick, United Kingdom;2. Department of Cognitive Science, Central European University, Hungary;1. Institute for Communications Technology, Technische Universität Braunschweig, Schleinitzstr. 22, 38106 Braunschweig, Germany;2. Department of Neurology, Hannover Medical School, Carl-Neuberg-Str. 1, 30625 Hannover, Germany;2. Department of Cognitive, Perceptual & Brain Sciences, University College London, London, United Kingdom |
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Abstract: | A recent critique of hierarchical Bayesian models of delusion argues that, contrary to a key assumption of these models, belief formation in the healthy (i.e., neurotypical) mind is manifestly non-Bayesian. Here we provide a deeper examination of the empirical evidence underlying this critique. We argue that this evidence does not convincingly refute the assumption that belief formation in the neurotypical mind approximates Bayesian inference. Our argument rests on two key points. First, evidence that purports to reveal the most damning violation of Bayesian updating in human belief formation is counterweighted by substantial evidence that indicates such violations are the rare exception—not a common occurrence. Second, the remaining evidence does not demonstrate convincing violations of Bayesian inference in human belief updating; primarily because this evidence derives from study designs that produce results that are not obviously inconsistent with Bayesian principles. |
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Keywords: | The backfire effect Confirmation bias Motivated reasoning Bayesian inference Hierarchical Bayesian models of delusion |
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