Subjective probability and everyday life |
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Authors: | STIG FHANER |
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Institution: | University of Goteborg, Sweden |
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Abstract: | Abstract.— Recent research on probability judgement indicates that people's ability to estimate probabilities is very limited. It is argued that people may lack the cognitive apparatus necessary for processing probabilistic information, in so far as probability judgements play an unimportant role in everyday life. When probability judgements occasionally are made in everyday life it is argued that they are not based on frequency data but on some more or less well grounded theory. |
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