Extending the temporal range of psychometric prediction by optimal linear filtering of mental test scores

Incorporating temporal decline in predictive validity into mental testing theory is outlined. Starting from multivariate regression of criterion on repeated measurements, an analytic extension results in a weighting function for repeated measurements, replacing the beta weights. Besides optimizing, the procedure permits an evaluation of any particular prognosis setting: In cases of exponentially declining predictive validity, prognostic range can be extended if concurrent validity is nonperfect by optimal weighting (predictive filtering) of repeated measurements. Considerable gain in prognostic range over the traditional approach can be achieved if predictive validity declines concavely downwards.This work was supported by grant Dr 58/3 from Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft.