The Belief in Majority Determination of Group Decision Outcomes

We proposed and tested a linear model for predicting perceivers' beliefs about the magnitude of popular support for group decision outcomes. Experiment 1 showed that the model performed well when it predicted perceived majority support for group outcomes but poorly when it predicted a belief in minority support. Subjects, in other words, displayed a clear bias toward perceiving group decision outcomes as having been determined by the majority of group members. In Experiment 2, subjects were asked shortly after the November 1992 presidential election to indicate the percentage of the popular vote received on election day by Bill Clinton, George Bush, and Ross Perot. The results showed that Clinton, who actually received less than majority voter support (43%0), was perceived to have attracted majority support (51.8%). Moreover, 7 months after the election, perceived majority support for Clinton on election day grew stronger (to 56.8%) whereas perceived voter support for Bush and Perot declined. These data illustrate a pervasive belief in majority determination of group decision outcomes.