旧证据问题：一种动态的消解方案

旧证据问题是指贝叶斯确证理论在讨论旧证据确证新理论（假说）的问题上将出现不合理的结果,它的消解是贝叶斯确证理论辩护的一个非常重要的环节。本文倡导一种基于Levi理论的动态方案来消解这一问题。在这种方案下,知识汇集的动态性使得旧证据在新理论引入前后的置信概率可能是不相同的,在此基础上我们证明,经新理论扩充后而得到的知识汇集无论是一致扩充还是不一致扩充,均存在一个旧证据E,它对该新理论具有确证作用。

The Problem of Old Evidence:From the Dynamic Point of View

Glymour has pointed out that using Bayesian confirmation theory to investigate the confirmation relation between old evidence and a new theory or hypothesis will lead an unsatisfied result,which is called the problem of old evidence.The analysis of this problem,indeed,is a very important issue for the justification of Bayesian confirmation theory.To illustrate this problem,we advocate a dynamic approach based on Levi's theory.Following the dynamic feature of the corpora of knowledge,the credal probability o...