童年期抑郁情绪发展的异质性与可预测性:2年追踪研究

以儿童抑郁量表为研究工具，对小学3到4年级771名儿童进行了2年的追踪研究。采用潜类别增长模型和终端结局潜发展模型，分别考察了童年期儿童抑郁情绪发展的亚群组类型，以及儿童抑郁情绪的发展特征对观察期结束时抑郁情绪的预测作用。结果表明：（1）童年期儿童的抑郁情绪发展呈现出三种不同的亚类型，即抑郁高风险组、抑郁低风险组和抑郁自愈组，各类型组人数比例分别为9.6%、53.4%和36.8%；（2）童年期儿童抑郁情绪的初始水平及其发展变化率均可以显著预测观察期结束时的抑郁情绪状况。童年期儿童抑郁情绪的早期监测工作有着重要的实践意义。

The Heterogeneity and Predictability of Childhood Depression Development: A 2-year Follow-up Study

In this study, 771 students in grades 3~4 were investigated by Children Depression Scale in the time of 2 years. Adopting The latent category growth model and The latent growth model with distal outcome measure. This study examined the subgroup types of childhood depression development, and the predictive effects of the developmental characteristics of childhood depression on the status of depression at the end of the observation period. The results indicated that:(1) the development of depression in childhood children presents three different subtypes:High risk group for depression, Low risk group for depression and Depression self-healing group. The proportion of people in each type group was 9.6%,53.4% and 36.8% respectively; (2) The initial level of depression in childhood and its rate of development can significantly predict the depression at the end of the observation period. The early monitoring of childhood depression is of great practical significance.