教条悖论：行为心理学家的新挑战

在各种专业或私人情境中, 人们经常需要整合不同的意见来判断某一观点的对错。当观点的形式类似于将多个论点组合而成的逻辑公式(使用“且”、“或”等逻辑连接词)时, 容易产生教条悖论(doctrinal paradox)。即, 虽然整体意见支持该观点是正确的(或错误的), 但是分析这些整体意见中所包含的各个论点, 却会得到相反的结论。教条悖论是判断整合研究中关注的重要问题, 已在各科学领域引发大量的规范性研究。行为心理学家需在这个重要问题上开展系统研究。本文简要介绍了教条悖论及其过往研究, 总结已有的行为数据, 并指出未来行为研究的方向和视角。

The Doctrinal Paradox, a New Challenge for Behavioral Psychologists

In various professional and private contexts, it is often necessary to aggregate different opinions about whether a given claim is true or false. A doctrinal paradox occurs when this claim is akin to a logical formula combining several propositions, and it turns out that the claim itself is true (resp., false) for a majority of judges, whereas a majority of judges has opinions on the propositions that would make the claim false (resp., true). The doctrinal paradox is a serious formal concern for judgment ag...