Examining creative performance over time using hierarchical linear modeling: An illustration using film directors

Longitudinal performance of 73 film directors are examined using hierarchical linear modeling (HLM). The HLM analyses model intraindividual performance trajectories (i.e., performance change over time) and interindividual differences in the trajectory parameters (i.e., initial status and rate of change in performance). Results reveal that as a group, directors' performance over careers, measured by critics' ratings, can be described using a quadratic trajectory with an increase in ratings following the initial film, followed by an eventual decline in ratings in later films. However, at the intraindividual level, directors differ in their initial status as well as rate of linear change, and some directors follow an accelerating or decelerating performance pattern. These interindividual differences in initial status, direction of change, and rate of change are related to the mean number of films per year directed by the individual. Implications and future research challenges for modeling longitudinal creative performance with HLM are discussed.