Perceived probability and evaluation of balance,agreement, and attraction: Toward a solution of conflicting results

Fifty-four subjects rated sixteen hypothetical situations on four evaluative and four probability scales. The situations were of the P-O-X type, consisting of two persons and an issue. A2×2×2×2 factorial design was used to test the relative importance of attitude (P to × relation), issue (marijuana or premarital sex), agreement (P to × and O to × relations), attraction (P to O relation), and balance (agreement × attraction interaction) on the evaluation and probability variables. As predicted from a critical review of past research on balance theory, balance was the main determinant of perceived probability. Attraction was the main determinant of evalution. In light of a review of past balance research and of the present data, we propose to restrict the balance hypothesis to cognitive variables, i.e., expectancy and perceived probability. In addition, support was obtained for the hypothesis that the more dogmatic a person is, the more frequently he will perceive balanced relationships as occurring and the more positively he will evaluate balanced situations.