Intuitive judgments of proportions, means, and variances: A review

Recent investigations of intuitive statistical inference have been far less optimistic regarding man’s ability as an “intuitive statistician” than were Peterson and Beach in 1967. Work on judgments of variance and central tendency formed a significant part of Peterson and Beach’s review but is now regarded as peripheral. Work in this area is discussed in this review and it is concluded that it yields some understanding of the Peterson and Beach view, as subjects appear to be reasonably competent “intuitive arithmeticians.” However, it is pointed out that these tasks involve a “lower level” type of statistical judgment and that several nonnormative biases are observed, even at this level. This review arises from research conducted by the author while employed on a Social Science Research Council grant held by Dr. J.St.B.T. Evans.