The expected likelihood of transitivity of preference

May's model of pairwise preference determination is used to assess the expected likelihood that a subject's pairwise preference comparisons on three alternatives will be transitive. A closed form representation for this expected likelihood is obtained for each situation considered. When the subject is assumed to act precisely according to rankings on attributes with May's model, the computed expected likelihoods the relatively large. When the subject becomes a probabilistic chooser, as defined in a specific manner, expected likelihoods of transitivity decrease significantly from corresponding values with May's model. For a probabilistic Chooser, there is a significant likelihood that the subject might yield transitive pairwise preferences substantially different than the results suggested by May's model.This research was supported by a grant from the General University Research Program and through a fellowship from the Center for Advanced Study, both of the University of Delaware. Very helpful input from John H. Antil, Meryl P. Gardner, and James M. Munch is also acknowledged.