Context and the interpretation of likelihood information: the role of intergroup comparisons on perceived vulnerability |
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Authors: | Windschitl Paul D Martin René Flugstad Annette R |
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Affiliation: | Department of Psychology, University of Iowa, Iowa City 52242, USA. paul-windschitl@uiowa.edu |
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Abstract: | Four experiments investigated how people's perceptions about a group's (e.g., women's) vulnerability to a disease are influenced by information about the prevalence of the disease in a comparable group (e.g., men). Participants read symptom and prevalence infomation about fictitious diseases before answering questions regarding target group vulnerability. Participants used the prevalence rate for a nontarget group as an immediate comparison standard for intuitively interpreting the degree of vulnerability of a target group, resulting in robust contrast effects. Experiments 3 and 4 illustrated that these contrast effects can cause a person's intuitive perceptions about a group's vulnerability to selected diseases to conflict with his or her knowledge of the prevalence rates for the diseases. The results support a distinction between 2 components of psychological uncertainty-beliefs in objective probability and more intuitive perceptions of certainty. |
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