Contextualism and the issue of continuity

In the study of continuity development, two models have predominated in the research literature: organismic vs. contextual model. The first, the organismic, is characterized by the claim that early individual characteristics—what I refer to as traits—have predictive power in relation to subsequent behavior. The contextual model, on the other hand, stresses that predictive power of early individual characteristics is rather weak and that the best predictor of later behavior is the nature of the environment the individual occupies at that point in time. In this paper, both models are presented (including an interactive one), using data from a longitudinal study of attachment. Findings from children 1 to 18 years reveal that 18-year-old models of attachment, as well as the level of psychopathology shown, are best predicted by concurrent family status (whether the mother and father are divorced), rather than early attachment or the interaction between early attachment and family status.