Debiasing the hindsight bias: The role of accessibility experiences and (mis)attributions |
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| Authors: | Lawrence J Sanna Norbert Schwarz |
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| Affiliation: | a Department of Psychology, CB# 3270 Davie Hall, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3270, USA
b Department of Psychology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA |
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| Abstract: | Two studies tested the role of accessibility experiences and attributions in debiasing the hindsight bias. Participants listed 4 or 12 thoughts about how a college football game, or the 2000 US Presidential election, might have turned out differently. Listing 12 thoughts was experienced as difficult, suggesting to participants that there were few ways in which the event could have turned out otherwise. Hindsight biases increased under this condition, unless participants attributed the difficulty of the thought generation to their own lack of knowledge, which resulted in a trend in the opposite direction. The interplay of accessible content, accessibility experiences and attribution in mental simulation is discussed. |
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| Keywords: | Hindsight bias Accessibility Metacognition Mental simulation Judgmental biases |
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