Evidence for Mixed Processes in Normal/Mirror Discrimination of Rotated Letters: A Bayesian Model Comparison Between Single- and Mixed-Distribution Models1

When determining whether a rotated letter is normal or mirrored, an observer mentally rotates the letter to its canonical orientation. To account for patterns of response times (RTs) for the normal/mirror discrimination of rotated letters, previous research formulated a model that postulated a mixture of trials with and without mental rotation. While this model could explain the curvilinear relationship that has been found between averaged RT and letter orientations, the curved RT function is still open to alternative explanations without assuming mixed processes. To address this issue and test the mixed-process hypothesis more directly, we analyzed trial-by-trial RT data instead of averaged RTs by employing a Bayesian model comparison technique. If rotation and non-rotation trials are mixed, trial-by-trial RTs for letters in a particular orientation should not follow a single distribution but a mixed one formed from the superposition of two separate distributions, one for rotation and one for non-rotation trials. In the present study, we compared single- and mixed-distribution models. Bayes-factor analysis showed decisive support for the mixed-distribution model over the single-distribution model. In addition, using the widely applicable information criterion (WAIC), the predictive accuracy of the mixed-distribution model was found to be as high as that of the single-distribution model. These results indicated the involvement of mixed processes in normal/mirror discrimination of rotated letters. The usefulness of statistical modeling in psychological study and necessary precautions to take in the interpretation of the parameters of unconfirmed models are also discussed.