The Fallacy of Calibrationism |
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Authors: | Yoaav Isaacs |
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Affiliation: | Baylor University |
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Abstract: | Calibrationism is an intuitively plausible thesis about the relation between rational credence and expected reliability. But calibrationism is misguided. It relies on the base-rate fallacy, a classic mistake in probabilistic epistemology. Thus while calibrationism is intuitive, it cannot be correct. |
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