Predicting elections from the most important issue: A test of the take‐the‐best heuristic

We used the take‐the‐best heuristic to develop a model to forecast the popular two‐party vote shares in U.S. presidential elections. The model draws upon information about how voters expect the candidates to deal with the most important issue facing the country. We used cross‐validation to calculate a total of 1000 out‐of‐sample forecasts, one for each of the last 100 days of the ten U.S. presidential elections from 1972 to 2008. Ninety‐seven per cent of forecasts correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote. The model forecasts were competitive compared to forecasts from methods that incorporate substantially more information (e.g., econometric models and the Iowa Electronic Markets). The purpose of the model is to provide fast advice on which issues candidates should stress in their campaign. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Rethinking Moral Agency in Markets: A Book Discussion on Behavioral Economics

Recent work in behavioral economics and psychology provides valuable resources for religious ethicists. This book discussion examines contributions by Cass Sunstein, Daniel Kahneman, George Akerlof and Rachel Kranton, Uri Gneezy and John A. List, and Douglas Hough. This literature raises important questions about ethical decision‐making, moral agency and responsibility, and the ethics of life in global capitalism. It also opens up promising areas for interdisciplinary dialogue between economics and religious studies. This book discussion concludes that religious ethicists have much to contribute to the conversations about moral anthropology that are now being held in behavioral economic research, and to the broader political economic debates in which this research participates.     

B2B commitment building in emerging markets: the case of Brazil

The research examines the suitability of relationship marketing paradigms to emerging markets (EMs) through the lens of communication, relationship benefits and commitment. Using the U.S. as a developed nation sample and Brazil as a proxy for EM countries like the BRIC nations, a B2B buyer–supplier commitment-building model is conceptualized and tested for context-specific boundaries. The study compares communication behaviors and relationship benefits along functional, psychological and social dimensions to discern the evaluation process and governance mechanisms influenced by an EM buyer’s institutional environment. Results showed that buyers from relation-based EMs like Brazil base their relationship commitment more on the psychological attributes of the partnership, while a buyer’s commitment-building process in rule-based, developed nations like the US is largely influenced by functional attributes.     

The mirror and the hammer: the politics of resacralization

The paper consists of the opening chapter of Andrew Samuels’ book The Political Psyche, published in 1993, together with a retrospective introduction. In the chapter, the author discussed the possibilities and limitations of applying depth psychological thinking to social and political problematics. He situates the attempt to make such applications within a wider movement to refresh and reform Western political endeavours. He terms this wider project ‘resacralization’. The author cautions against psychological reductionism and a simplistic approach to market‐based capitalism, calling for a transformation of the latter to the degree possible. He links sociopolitical criticism and psychological writings on numinous experience, thereby connecting the worlds of politics and depth psychology without losing their separate and unique qualities.     

Social exchange styles: Measurement,validation, and application

Drawing on evolutionary psychology, social exchange styles were conceptualized in terms of two dimensions of individual differences in approaching exchange relationships: Benefit‐seeking and cost‐vigilance. In Study 1, a principal components analysis of the Social Exchange Styles Questionnaire (SESQ) in 156 undergraduates confirmed the presence of two dimensions that were very similar to the expected dimensions: Equitable alliance building (EAB) and vigilant alliance management (VAM). The SESQ scales showed good internal consistency and construct validity. Multiple regressions confirmed that social exchange styles were distinct from other personality variables. In Study 2, multilevel modelling conducted on 45 small work groups demonstrated that EAB positively predicted members' subjective performance, while VAM positively predicted objective performance. Theoretical questions and future research directions are discussed. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Optimum route of the south transcontinental gas pipeline in SE Europe using AHP

The development of a south energy corridor connecting Europe with the natural gas reserves of the broader Caspian Region and Middle East aims at increasing the EU security and diversification of energy supply. In this paper, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method with geopolitical, economic and technical criteria is applied to define the most preferred route of the transcontinental gas pipeline that branches in SE Europe to transport Caspian gas further into the targeted markets of Europe. The paper is divided into five sections. The first introduces the purpose of the paper. The second describes the used AHP method in detail (criteria, sub-criteria, weights, consistency indexes). The third briefly addresses the need of EU to diversify its supply sources and the planned gas projects in SE Europe. In the fourth section, the method is applied to the four alternative pipeline routes and the robustness of the results is examined with sensitivity analysis. The fifth section comments on the results of the method. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

What personal selling and sales management recommendations from developed markets are relevant in emerging markets?

As emerging markets continue to grow, research on personal selling and sales management in these settings is coming to the fore, as this special issue of Journal of Personal Selling and Sales Management attests. With an in-depth review of extant research, this contribution addresses three key research questions. First, are there differences between established/recommended theories or styles or paradigms for effective personal selling and sales management in developed markets and emerging markets? The survey suggests there are. Second, are culture variables, traditionally used in extant research, sufficient to differentiate between developed and emerging markets? The presented analysis suggests that culture must be combined with economic variables to establish clear contexts that reflect developed and emerging markets. Third, what classification framework can serve to examine personal selling and sales management strategies in terms of their applicability in both developed and emerging markets? This article derives such a classification framework by organizing extant sales research into categories where either small differences in research findings between developed and emerging markets are expected, or where large differences in research findings are expected. Propositions for the category of selling process and technique are derived. Overall, these findings suggest the need for substantial research that examines the differences between developed and emerging markets, because of the vast implications for theory, research, and practice.     

Forecasting Elections from Voters' Perceptions of Candidates' Ability to Handle Issues

When deciding for whom to vote, voters should select the candidate they expect to best handle issues, all other things equal. A simple heuristic predicted that the candidate who is rated more favorably on a larger number of issues would win the popular vote. This was correct for nine out of ten U.S. presidential elections from 1972 to 2008. We then used simple linear regression to relate the incumbent's relative issue ratings to the actual two‐party popular vote shares. The resulting model yielded out‐of‐sample forecasts that were competitive with those from the Iowa Electronic Markets and established quantitative models. The issue‐index model has implications for political decision makers, as it can help to track campaigns and to decide which issues to focus on. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Volenti goes to Market*

If free markets consist in nothing more than “capitalist acts between consenting adults,” and if in the old legal maxim “volenti non fit injuria,” then it seems to follow that free markets do no wrongs. But that defense of free markets wrenches the “volenti” maxim out of context. In common law adjudication of disputes between two parties, it is perfectly appropriate to cast standards of “volenti” narrowly, and largely ignore “duress via third parties” (wrongs done to or by others who are not themselves party to the action). In economic markets, of course, those third-party effects are rife. But we want them to be rectified systematically, not piecemeal through particular cases between particular parties that happen to come to court. That is the proper province of political philosophers and system-designers, in critiquing and constraining the operation of the market. * I thank Peter Cane for much good advice, and exonerate him from any blame for the use I have made of it.     

Social influence on predictions of simulated stock prices

Herding in financial markets refers to that investors are influenced by others. This study addresses the importance of consistency for herding. It is suggested that, in financial markets perceptions of consistency are based on repeated observations over time. Consistency may then be perceived as the agreement across time between investors' predictions. In addition, consistency may be related to variance over time in each investor's predictions. In an experiment using a Multiple Cue Probability Learning paradigm, 96 undergraduates made multi‐trial predictions of future stock prices given information about the current price and the predictions made by five fictitious others. Consistency was varied between the others' predictions (correlation) and within the others' predictions (variance). The results showed that the predictions were significantly influenced by the others' predictions when these were correlated. No effect of variance was observed. Hence, participants were influenced by the others when they were in agreement, regardless of whether they varied their predictions over trials or not. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.