A post hoc correction procedure for systematic errors in time-sampling duration estimates

Numerous previous studies have shown that partial-interval sampling in direct observation systematically overestimates duration and underestimates frequency. Whole-interval sampling systematically underestimates both duration and frequency. This paper presents a post hoc method through which the systematic errors in duration estimates in partial-interval sampling and whole-interval sampling can be minimized.     

IS THERE A DISTINCTIVE QUANTUM THEOLOGY?

Quantum mechanics (QM) is a favorite area of physics to feature in “science and religion” discussions. We argue that this is at least partly because the arcane results of QM can be deployed to make big theological claims by the linguistic sleight of hand of “register switching”—sliding imperceptibly from technical into everyday language using the same vocabulary. We clarify the discussion by deploying the formal mapping of QM into classical statistical mechanics (CSM) via the mathematical device of “Wick rotation.” This equivalence between QM and CSM suggests caution in claiming distinctiveness for quantum theologizing. After outlining two areas in which quantum insights nevertheless resonate with longstanding themes in theological reflection (hiddenness and visualizability), we suggest that both QM and CSM point to a theology of science in which scientists participate in the divine gaze on creation as imago Dei.     

卡车驾驶员速度估计研究

用速度知觉测试仪,对251名男性卡车驾驶员在四种实验条件下的速度估计准确性进行了测量。结果发现：安全组卡车驾驶员的速度估计准确性优于事故组卡车驾驶员,两者在低速条件下差异不显著,高速条件下差异显著;事故组卡车驾驶员的高估次数高于安全组卡车驾驶员,低速条件下两者不显著.高速条件下差异显著;事故多发组与安全组卡车驾驶员的速度估计准确性在高速及低速长距离条件下差异显著;速度及距离对速度估计准确性有显著影响,且两者之间存在显著的交互作用;年龄对速度估计准确性无显著影响。     

Comparisons of rats' choice behavior among three different radial-maze tasks

The present study compared rats' behavioral changes on three tasks on the radial-arm maze. In the free-choice task (0Fo/8Fr; no forced choice/eight free choices), rats performed efficiently with the simple response pattern of sequential adjacent-arm choices. In the two forced-choice tasks (3Fo/5Fr and 5Fo/3Fr), rats performed as efficiently as 0Fo/8Fr but showed no particular response patterns. The frequency of arm investigation was the highest in 5Fo/3Fr, and was higher in 3Fo/5Fr than in 0Fo/8Fr. The probability of correct rejection, avoiding re-entry to visited arms after investigation, was also higher in 3Fo/5Fr and 5Fo/3Fr than in 0Fo/8Fr. These results suggest that the rats could adjust their behavior to the task demands.     

The stability of depressive symptoms in college students: An empirical demonstration of regression to the mean

In a recent paper, Vredenburg, Flett, and Krames (1993) hypothesized that the apparent instability of depressive symptom scores in college students may be due, in part, to the phenomenon known as statistical regression to the mean. This statistical principle was demonstrated in the current study. A sample of 183 university students completed the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) at two timepoints separated by a 3-month interval. Consistent with past results, analyses revealed substantial changes in symptom scores over time with decrements being evident among many subjects with elevated symptom scores at Time 1. Examination of the amount of change over time in BDI scores indicated a pattern of findings that approximated the regression to the mean phenomenon. Statistical tests confirmed that regression to the mean accounted for a significant amount of the change in symptom scores over time. The implications of these findings are discussed in terms of the nature of depressive symptoms in students and the inappropriateness of assigning subjects to depressed or nondepressed groups on the basis of elevated scores on a self-report measure.     

Prediction accuracy of text recall: Ease, effort and familiarity

Prediction accuracy of text recall was studied in two experiments. Text characteristics (i.e., consistency and distinctiveness) were manipulated in Experiment 1, and familiarity with the reading-task in Experiment 2. The results were also analyzed and discussed in terms of easy processing (Experiment 1), and in terms of increased and more active processing (Experiment 2). Text characteristics did not affect prediction accuracy. However, being familiar with the reading-task led to good and long-lasting prediction accuracy. Thus, subjects reading a school-book text, instructed to learn the contents of it demonstrated reliable memory awareness, both for immediate recall and for delay of one week. It was also suggested that increased processing demands and active reading enhances prediction accuracy.     

The effects of statistical training on choice heuristics in choice under uncertainty

Kahneman and Tversky (1984) proposed that decision makers perceive choice uncertainty in two ways: (1) as a distribution of possible outcomes or (2) as a single uncertain outcome. Using statistical training as a factor that influences these perceptions, and thus the type of decision approach individuals use, we found that individuals with different levels of experience displayed differences in the decisions they made and in the choice heuristics used to make those decisions. Statistically naive individuals were more likely to prefer loss-minimizing alternatives, use a more non-compensatory heuristic, and spend more time on loss-related information than their statistically experienced counterparts. When a distributional cue, indicating the distributional nature of choice outcomes, was presented to both experience groups, the naive group was found to use a decision approach similar to the experienced group and to make similar decisions. The results are discussed in terms of the need to include factors that alter individuals' approaches to uncertainty in future behavioral models of uncertain choice.     

Misunderstandings and omissions in textbook accounts of effect sizes

There have been frequent attempts in psychology to reduce the reliance on null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) as the criterion for establishing the importance of results. Many authorities now recommend the reporting of effect sizes (ESs) as a supplement or alternative to NHST. However, there is extensive specialist literature highlighting problems associated with the use and interpretation of ESs. A review of the coverage of ESs in over 100 textbooks on statistical analysis in behavioural science revealed widespread neglect of ESs and the relevant critical issues that have widespread coverage in the more specialist literature. For example, many textbooks claim that ESs should be interpreted as a simple measure of the practical real-world importance of a result despite the fact that ESs are profoundly influenced by features of design and analysis strategy. We seek to highlight areas of misunderstanding about ESs found in the pedagogical literature in the light of the more specialist literature and make recommendations to researchers for the appropriate use and interpretation of ESs. This is critical as statistics textbooks have a crucial role in the education of researchers.     

Do incompatible alternatives in a testimony affect witness credibility?

The qualitative regulation of grain size allows witnesses to increase the accuracy of their reports by adding alternatives (e.g., “the robber concealed his face with a mask, with a stocking, or with a balaclava”). However, such answers may include incompatible alternatives which may make police officers and juries distrust witnesses. In four preregistered experiments, we tested the effect of information with incompatible alternatives on witness credibility. In Experiments 1a, 1b, and 1c, we presented two short testimonies, one with incompatible alternatives and another without and credibility was lower with incompatible alternatives. In Experiment 2, we told participants that witnesses could report several alternatives and the effect was reduced. We explain the effect of incompatible alternatives on credibility from participants' inferences that a witness producing an answer with incompatible alternatives is not confident in their memory and a failure to fully appreciate the advantages of adding alternatives.