“To hope was to expect”: The impact of perspective taking and forecast type on wishful thinking

When forecasting future outcomes, people tend to believe that the outcomes they want to happen are also likely to happen. Despite numerous attempts, few systematic factors have been identified that consistently and robustly reduce wishful thinking (WT) effects. Using elections and sporting event outcomes as contexts, three experiments examined whether taking the perspective of a political rival or opposing fan reduced WT effects. We also examined whether making deliberative (vs. intuitive-based) forecasts was associated with lower WT effects. Online adult samples of U.S. citizens from Mechanical Turk and U.S. college students provided their preferences and forecasts for the U.S. presidential election (Experiments 1 and 2) and a sports competition outcome (Experiment 3). Critically, some participants received perspective taking prompts immediately before providing forecasts. First, results revealed reductions in WT effects when participants engaged in perspective taking. Interestingly, this effect only emerged when intuitive-based forecasts were made first (Experiment 3). Second, intuitive-based forecasts revealed stronger evidence of WT effects. Finally, we found that perspective taking and forming forecasts deliberately promoted a shift in focus away from preferences and toward a consideration of the relative strengths and weaknesses of the entities (i.e., candidates and teams). Theoretical implications for understanding WT effects and applied implications for developing interventions are discussed.     

Time-place learning by pigeons, Columba livia

In each of two experiments, 2 pigeons received discrimination training in which food reinforcement for key pecking was conditional upon both spatial and temporal cues. In Experiment 1, food was available for periods of 30 s at each of three locations (pecking keys) during trials that lasted 90 s. In Experiment 2, food was available for periods of 15 min at each of four locations (pecking keys) during a 60-min trial. In both experiments, pigeons' key pecking was jointly controlled by the spatial and temporal cues. These data, and other recent experiments, suggest that animals learn relationships between temporal and spatial cues that predict stable patterns of food availability.     

4-5年级学生的空间表征与几何能力的相关性研究

本研究是“学生空间能力和几何能力关系”研究的一部分,以小学4、5年级学生为被试(共117人),以空问表征能力测验和几何能力测验为测验工具,初步探讨了学生空间表征与几何能力的关系。对数据结果的分析表明:①就总成绩而言,五年级学生的空间表在成绩明显高于四年级学生的成绩,但并不是空间表征的所有方面都存在着显著的年级差异;②就空间测验的总成绩而言,无论是四、五年级分别考察还是总起来考察,空间成绩与几何成绩之间的相关显著,但就各个分项而言,并不是空间测验的各项都与几何测验成绩有显著相关;学生的几何成绩在一定程度上可通过回归方程:Y_i=0.5736X_i+0.7635加以预测。     

Combinatorial data analysis: Association and partial association

A combinatorial data analysis strategy is reviewed that is designed to compare two arbitrary measures of proximity defined between the objects from some set. Based on a particular cross-product definition of correspondence between these two numerically specified notions of proximity (typically represented in the form of matrices), extensions are then pursued to indices of partial association that relate the observed pattern of correspondence between the first two proximity measures to a third. The attendant issues of index normalization and significance testing are discussed; the latter is approached through a simple randomization model implemented either through a Monte Carlo procedure or distributional approximations based on the first three moments. Applications of the original comparison strategy and its extensions to partial association may be developed for a variety of methodological and substantive tasks. Besides rank correlation, we emphasize the topics of spatial autocorrelation for one variable and spatial association between two and mention the connection to the usual randomization approach for one-way analysis-of-variance.     

Fallacies in pragma-dialectical perspective

In the pragma-dialectical approach, fallacies are considered incorrect moves in a discussion for which the goal is successful resolution of a dispute. Ten rules are given for effective conduct at the various stages of such a critical discussion (confrontation, opening, argumentation, concluding). Fallacies are discussed as violations of these rules, taking into account all speech acts which are traditionally recognized as fallacies. Special attention is paid to the role played by implicitness in fallacies in everyday language use. It is stressed that identifying and acknowledging fallacies in ordinary discussions always has a conditional character. Differences between the pragma-dialectical perspective, the Standard Treatment, and the formal logic approach to fallacy analysis are discussed.     

Stimulus control in the use of landmarks by pigeons in a touch-screen task

Pigeons were tested in a search task on the surface of a monitor on which their responses were registered by a touch-sensitive device. A graphic landmark array was presented consisting of a square outline (the frame) and a colored “landmark.” The unmarked goal, pecks at which produced reward, was located near the center of one edge of the frame, and the landmark was near it. The entire array was displaced without rotation on the monitor from trial to trial. On occasional no-reward tests, the following manipulations were made to the landmark array: (a) either the frame or the landmark was removed; (2) either one edge of the frame or the landmark was shifted; and (3) two landmarks were presented with or without the frame present. On these two-landmark tests, the frame, when present, defined which was the “correct” landmark. When the frame was absent, the “correct” landmark was arbitrarily determined. Results showed that pecks of 2 pigeons were controlled almost solely by the landmark, pecks of 3 were controlled primarily by the landmark but the frame could distinguish the correct landmark, and 1 bird's behavior was controlled primarily by the frame. Stimulus control in this search task is thus selective and differs across individuals. Comparisons to other search tasks and to other stimulus control experiments are made.     

杏仁复合体损毁对大鼠空间认知能力的影响

杏仁复合体损毁大鼠Ｍｏｒｒｉｓ迷宫作业学习成绩显著低于控制组,记忆成绩较显著低于控制组。其搜索目标时主要采用与控制组的图式策略相异的趋向式策略。策略差异提示：杏仁复合体参与大鼠空间认知的辅助加工。     

Formation of transitivity in conditional matching to sample by pigeons

Four homing pigeons were trained over 5 months in a zero-delay, “arbitrary” matching-to-sample procedure with sample and comparison stimuli presented on any of three response keys. Birds were also required to complete a fixed-ratio 10 requirement on both sample and comparison stimuli to terminate their presentation. The procedure resulted in the establishment of relations that were not specifically trained and that can be characterized by the property of transitivity in a stimulus equivalence context. This result was in contrast with the findings obtained from most previous research with nonhuman subjects.     

Psychopathic personality traits and temporal perspective: A test of the short time horizon hypothesis

A number of authors have proposed that psychopathic individuals possess an abnormally constricted time horizon (i.e., foreshortened sense of the future). This hypothesis was tested among 101 undergraduates, who were administered a battery of (1) self-report indices of psychopathic personality traits, antisocial behavior, and normal-range personality traits; (2) self-report indices of time perspective; (3) projective tests of time perspective; and (4) laboratory tasks assessing time estimation and capacity for foresight and impulse control. Measures of psychopathy/antisocial behavior tended to be negatively correlated with several self-report indices assessing preoccupation with the future and with a projective task assessing the frequency of thoughts concerning future events, although only one of the correlations with this latter task was significant. In most cases these correlations were not attributable to the variance shared by measures of psychopathy/antisocial behavior and measures of (low) anxiety-proneness, although several correlations decreased substantially after levels of harmavoidance were controlled. In contrast, measures of psychopathy/antisocial behavior were negligibly correlated with laboratory tasks. These results provide mixed support for the short time horizon hypothesis and suggest that further attention to the role of method factors in investigations of future time perspective is warranted.     

General vs health‐specific consideration of immediate and future consequences to explain eating and exercise behavior in a Norwegian student population: A randomized survey experiment

Over several decades, the consideration of future consequences (CFC) construct has been used to explain and predict health behaviors. However, the reported associations between CFC and health behaviors are relatively weak, leading to the low explanatory power of the models. Recent research suggests that CFC can be a domain‐specific construct. In this study, we explored the psychometric properties of the Norwegian CFC‐general and CFC‐health questionnaires in terms of factor structure and discriminant and convergent validity and tested the association between the general and domain‐specific CFC and exercise and eating behaviors. In a randomized survey experiment, 1,001 university students were assigned to either a CFC‐general or a CFC‐health questionnaire. In the tested models, two dimensions of CFC, consideration of immediate consequences (CFC‐I) and consideration of future consequences (CFC‐F), were independent variables. The exercise and eating behaviors, measured both as self‐evaluated behaviors and self‐reported frequency measures, were dependent variables. The results showed that in both CFC‐general and CFC‐health, CFC‐I and CFC‐F are distinct dimensions that differentially explain variance in health behaviors. A domain‐specific CFC‐health explained a significantly higher amount of variance in self‐reported eating and exercising behaviors than a general CFC. Self‐evaluated health behaviors were better explained by CFC than self‐reported behavioral frequencies. Practical implications of the findings and avenues for future research are discussed.